Aleppo Update

After years of some of the worst fighting in the Syrian Civil War, the battle for Aleppo seems to be over.  On December 22, the last rebel fighters left the city.  Since then, some residents who fled the city have returned.

Throughout the months of November and December, as fighting intensified and casualties increased, several short-term ceasefires were reached.  None of these lasted for more than a few days, one being as short as two hours.  Most of these ceasefires were negotiated by Russia, a supporter of the Syrian regime and Turkey, a supporter of many rebel groups, opposed to the government.  Towards the end of the battle, as regime forces who were supported by Russian airstrikes and Iranian-backed militia closed in on rebel holdouts in East Aleppo, the carnage steadily increased as winter set in and supplies of food and other essentials ran out while the city was bombed relentlessly by Syrian regime and Russian planes.  Scenes of children killed or injured by the fighting flooded the internet.

Russian and Turkish officials tried to enforce more ceasefires towards the end of the fighting in order to allow civilians and surrendering rebels to escape from the city amid mounting international pressure.  While many civilians were able to exit Aleppo, there were allegations of rebel groups and Iranian militias abusing refugees.

On 22 December, the battle of Aleppo finally ended with all neighborhoods of the city under regime control.  This is a major blow to moderate rebel groups not only militarily but also diplomatically as those who did not surrender, fled to the city of Idlib.  Idlib is controlled by rebel groups that include affiliates of Al Qa’ida.

 

The Crisis in Aleppo Explained

With all the coverage of events in the US, I thought it would be beneficial to cover some international events.

 

Background on the Battle of Aleppo

As the Syrian civil war drags into its sixth year, the most devastating battleground is the city of Aleppo.  Aleppo used to be the largest city in Syria, an ancient center of commerce and trade. During the civil war, Aleppo has been all but destroyed by bombs and shelling.

During the civil war, the city has been used as a base by rebel groups fighting the Syrian government.  Syrian regime forces have responded brutally, often bombing civilian areas and blocking food, medicines, and other necessities from reaching the besieged areas of the city.  As of summer of 2016, half of Aleppo was controlled by the Syrian regime and half by a number of different rebel groups including some moderate groups supported by countries in the region such as Turkey and several Arab states Saudi Arabia and Jordan as well as extremist groups aligned with Al Qaeda and ISIS.

The Syrian regime is made up mostly of followers of the Shia sect of Islam although most Syrians and most people in Aleppo follow the Sunni sect.  The regime is thus backed by Shia countries and organizations including Iran and the Iranian-backed armed group, Hezbollah.  The Regime is also supported by Russia which is bombing rebel targets in Syria and proving support with equipment and special forces to the Syrian government.

 

The Situation Worsens

As regime forces closed in on the city of Aleppo, the number of civilian dead and wounded has steadily risen.  Regime forces have not allowed essentially supplies such as food to enter the city.  As casualties rose from airstrikes by Russian and Syrian regime planes and from artillery shelling, medical supplies were not allowed to be sent into Aleppo and the regime and its supporters have been accused of even bombing hospitals.

Drama in the Trump Transition Team

As President-Elect Trump begins organizing his administration, an epic drama is unfolding on top of the Trump Tower.  A leader of Trump’s transition is Jared Kushner, the husband of Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump’s daughter.  President-Elect Trump’s son-in-law has had a very important role behind the scenes in the campaign and was the de-facto chair for some time.

Another prominent figure in the transition team is the former governor of New Jersey and former Republican candidate, Chris Christie.  Christie was one of the first people to endorse Trump for president and has had a prominent role as a campaign surrogate since.

Christie was the chair of the Trump transition team immediately after the election but was fired on November 10 and replaced by Vice-President Elect, Mike Pence.  Christie still has a minor post on the team.  Soon afterward, Jared Kushner began to fire members of the transition team who were close to Chris Christie. These included former Michigan Congressman, Mike Rogers.

So where did Jared Kushner’s feud with Governor Christie come from?

In 2004, Governor Christie who was then a US attorney for New Jersey brought charges against Charles Kushner, Jared’s father.  Charles Kushner pled guilty to tax evasions and was sentenced to two years in prison.  The entire Kushner family including Jared Kushner has been opposed to Governor Christie.  Some sources say that Jared Kushner sees the transition as a way to get revenge on Governor Christie.      

The Alarming Prospect of President-Elect Trump’s Attorney General Nominee

As President-Elect, Donald Trump begins to fill his cabinet, many progressives are alarmed at the people he has chosen.  The latest of these posts to be filled was Attorney General, the leader of the US Department of Justice.  Trump’s nominee for Attorney General is the ultra-conservative senator from Alabama, Jeff Sessions.  

Senator Sessions had attempted to gain a position of Federal District Judge for Alabama in 1986 but was rejected in a senate hearing because of allegations of racism.  Sessions is notorious for saying that he would join the Ku Klux Klan “if they didn’t smoke marijuana”. He has also called the NAACP (National Association for the Advancement of Colored People) and ACLU (American Civil Liberties Union), “Un-American” and “Communist Inspired”.  While Senator Sessions was Attorney General of the state of Alabama, he attempted to prosecute volunteers with a civil rights organization who were registering African-Americans to vote, for tampering with ballots, a charge that was later dropped.

Sessions is also vehemently opposed to the legalization of Marijuana by states.  He has said that “Good people don’t smoke marijuana”.  Senator Jeff Sessions has also attempted to introduce a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.  

He has frequently voted against legislation that would enforce laws preventing hate crimes against the LGBT community.  Sessions has even stated that an openly gay nominee to the Supreme Court would be “deeply troubling to the American people”.

World Leaders’ Reaction to Trump

Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States of America.  A person who leaders around the world have called a racist, demagogue, and downright dangerous will command the world’s strongest country.  The entire world reacted at first with emotions of shock and fear but soon leaders started to congratulate President-elect Donald Trump.  Many stated that they are ready to work with the incoming president or talked about different international relations goals.

European leaders including German chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande called Trump and promised to work with him, however, Hollande did say that the world was entering an uncertain period.

Russian President,Vladimir Putin was the first foreign leader to congratulate Trump and has said he is excited to  work with him.  Putin has supported Trump since early on in the election.

Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau has said that he is ready to work closely with President Trump.

Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani has said that hopes Trump will respect the Iran Nuclear Agreement.

Israeli Prime Minister, Netanyahu has congratulated Trump and said he is a true friend to Israel.

Palestinian Authority President, Mahmud Abbas’ spokesperson said that he expected the US policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict not to change and hoped to continue negotiations.

Hopefully, Donald Trump will help foster peace and continued strengthening of relations across the world.  Some of his statements may have been controversial but Trump has recently been trying to reach out to world leaders and has already spoken to many officials around the world.

Where to Look for Election Predictions

Prediction Sites

With just days until arguably one of the most historic elections in recent history, I would like to give a run-down of most of the different polls and predictions for the 2016 presidential election.

RealClearPolitics (RCP) http://realclearpolitics.com/

The most popular site for polls is RealClearPolitics.  On this site, most polls are shown and there is also a RealClearPolitics average chart, an average of all the polls in the past week.  RealClearPolitics is used by most commentators and news agencies as well as political campaigns.  They not only show polls for the presidential election but also for the house, senate and governor’s races as well as other state elections.  RealClearPolitics also shows polls for opinions about national issues and approval ratings of politicians.

FiveThirtyEight (538) http://fivethirtyeight.com/

This site shows predictions based on polls for presidential and senate elections.  538 updates its predictions daily based on new opinion polls and developments relating to candidates in the elections being covered.  538 uses a variety of different means to come up with their predictions.  They have predictions based on historic polls, current polls and a combination of the two plus economic and social statistics.  

270 to Win http://www.270towin.com/

270 to win also shows predictions on the 2016 election but is better known for its interactive electoral map.  The site also has versions of the map as predicted by different political analysts.